Carbon County Economic Update

Tyson Smith, Regional Economist

The Utah Department of Workforce Services (DWS) relies on several data sources to help describe the state of the economy. The most accurate data available is the nonfarm payroll employment information that is collected through the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. However, the resources required to gather data accurately come at the expense of timeliness, which results in a four to six month lag between the time these data are collected and when they are available to the public.

Other data are collected in a timelier manner, and these data (along with historical trends) provide a foundation to estimate current economic conditions. Economists at DWS rely heavily upon statistical models, surveys, and limited datasets to evaluate the economy in real-time. Some of those tools, like the county unemployment rates and initial weekly unemployment claims, are highlighted in this article.

The truth is that no single source of economic data exists that can appropriately profile the labor market in real-time. So, when evaluating regional economies it is important to understand the recent economic history of the area, while also using any up-to-date information available despite the limitations of present data.

Emery County Economic Update

Tyson Smith, Regional Economist

The Utah Department of Workforce Services (DWS) relies on several data sources to help describe the state of the economy. The most accurate data available is the nonfarm payroll employment information that is collected through the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. However, the resources required to gather data accurately come at the expense of timeliness, which results in a four to six month lag between the time these data are collected and when they are available to the public.

Other data are collected in a timelier manner, and these data (along with historical trends) provide a foundation to estimate current economic conditions. Economists at DWS rely heavily upon statistical models, surveys, and limited datasets to evaluate the economy in real-time. Some of those tools, like the county unemployment rates and initial weekly unemployment claims, are highlighted in this article.

The truth is that no single source of economic data exists that can appropriately profile the labor market in real-time. So, when evaluating regional economies it is important to understand the recent economic history of the area, while also using any up-to-date information available despite the limitations of present data.

Carbon County Economic Update

Regional payroll employment shrinks slightly in the third quarter

Tyson Smith, Regional Economist

Broad-based economic growth does not always portend positive economic conditions in every community. Utah has seen significant labor market expansion over the last four years, growing at an annual rate of about 3 percent since 2011. And yet, economic recovery in the Castle Country region has been less than consistent.

Carbon and Emery counties – which make up Castle Country – have seen changes to the energy sector greatly impact the primary export industry (mining/quarrying/oil and gas extraction) of the region. Export industries generate new income and investment in a region, thus a dramatic change to a local economy’s exports will reverberate throughout the economy.

Carbon County

• Carbon County payroll employment fell in the third quarter of 2014 by an average annual rate of 2.2 percent, the fifth slowest year-over job growth in the state and far slower than the Utah average of 2.8 percent. In total, the county lost 196 jobs from third quarter 2013. Job losses in the mining industry subsided to a rate of 0.4 percent in the third quarter after falling 2.6 percent the previous period. The majority of the decrease in employment came from service-providing industries like wholesale trade (down 25.6 percent) and transportation/warehousing (down 23.1 percent).
• The county seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.7 percent in December, 1.2 percentage points above the state average. County unemployment rates are down nearly 1 percentage point from December 2013, and have consistently measured between 4.6 and 4.9 percent since March. 
• Initial unemployment insurance claims from January 2015 suggest that county unemployment rates will remain relatively low. The five-week average of initial claims in 2015 was approximately 19 claims per week, compared to 21 claims per week during the same period in 2014. 
• While employment in Carbon County waned over the last 12 months, average monthly wages increased 2.5 percent from third quarter 2013 to third quarter 2014. The increase in average wages likely reflects that the jobs lost during the year were lower paying than the jobs retained, which has a skewing effect on the average. The increase in wages probably does not reflect a tightening of the job market, which might result in an increase in wages across the board.
• Third-quarter taxable sales in Carbon County jumped nearly 10 percent, an increase of $9.7 million from last year. Business investment sales in manufacturing surged by $9.2 million (216.7 percent) from third quarter 2013, the largest annual increase in the county. These gains were slightly offset by a $2.5 million decline in the taxable sales of wholesale durable goods.

  

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Emery County Economic Update

Regional payroll employment shrinks slightly in the third quarter

Tyson Smith, Regional Economist

Broad-based economic growth does not always portend positive economic conditions in every community. Utah has seen significant labor market expansion over the last four years, growing at an annual rate of about 3 percent since 2011. And yet, economic recovery in the Castle Country
region has been less than consistent.

Carbon and Emery counties – which make up Castle Country – have seen changes to the energy sector greatly impact the primary export industry (mining/quarrying/oil and gas extraction) of the region. Export industries generate new income and investment in a region, thus a dramatic change to a local economy’s exports will reverberate throughout the economy.

Emery County

• Year-over payroll employment in Emery County shrank 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2014 after growing 2.5 percent in the second quarter. The decline was driven by the goods-producing industries, which fell 13.9 percent (123 jobs). Mining was hit particularly hard, losing an annual average of 105 jobs from the third quarter of 2013. Private-sector, service-providing employment grew slightly during this period, adding 27 jobs over the year.
• Like Carbon County, Emery County had a relatively high seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate of 4.6 percent in December. Job growth in 2014 has been uneven, and with the impending closure of the Deer Creek coal mine it is unlikely that the jobless rate will reach pre-recession lows in the near future. 
• The number of Emery County residents filing initial unemployment claims has been a bright spot for the county. Average weekly claims fell approximately 40 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, and have continued their downward trend at the beginning of 2015. Falling claims signal that it is doubtful that unemployment rates will increase in January.
• Average monthly wage growth in the third quarter of 2014 reflected the weak employment record; decreasing 0.1 percent from 2013. Carbon County’s wages grew 19.5 percent in the previous quarter, which underscores the variability of quarterly wage data. Wages in Emery County will not consistently have broad-based gains, so long as there remains considerable slack in labor market.
• Third quarter 2014 taxable sales in Emery increased for the fifth consecutive quarter. After increasing by over 15 percent in the first two quarter of 2014, taxable sales in the county edged up less than 1 percent in the third quarter. The manufacturing industry – the third largest industry by taxable sales – increased its business investment sales by $911,000 from the previous year.

  

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Emery County Economic Indicators

Despite the positive momentum across the state, the Castle Country and Southeast regions have scuffled to recover from the recession. Both regions felt the effects of the downturn in 2009, when the labor markets shed 202 and 283 jobs from the previous year, respectively. 2010 turned out to be the best year for the labor market in Castle Country since the recovery began. The Southeast region turned the corner in 2010 and has had uneven job growth since, though the first half of 2014 has shown signs of greater expansion. Some of the issues facing these economies are cyclical; while other challenges – like those facing the mining industry – are longer-term structural shifts in the economy.

• Year-over payroll employment in Emery County grew 2.5 percent in the second quarter of 2014. Growth was driven by the goods-producing industries, which increased 9.7 percent (87 jobs). However, construction and mining employment went in separate directions. Employment in the construction industry jumped 54.7 percent – likely the result of a single project, and not a long-term change – while mining employment fell 23.6 percent.
• Like Carbon County, Emery County had a relatively high seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate of 4.8 percent in September. 2014 job growth has been uneven, and without consistent growth it is unlikely that the jobless rate will reach pre-recession lows in the near future.
• Average monthly wage growth in the second quarter of 2014 reflected employment growth; increasing 19.5 percent from 2013 (the largest increase in the state). Carbon County’s wage growth was broad-based increasing in 9 of the 10 industry groups. However, a single project in the construction industry inflated average monthly wages dramatically.
• Second quarter 2014 taxable sales in Emery increased for the fourth consecutive quarter. Quarterly taxable sales in the county were just under $38 million, compared to $32.7 million in second quarter 2013. The utilities and information industries – the largest and fourth largest industries by total sales – gained $2.4 million combined.

Carbon County Economic Indicators

Despite the positive momentum across the state, the Castle Country and Southeast regions have scuffled to recover from the recession. Both regions felt the effects of the downturn in 2009, when the labor markets shed 202 and 283 jobs from the previous year, respectively. 2010 turned out to be the best year for the labor market in Castle Country since the recovery began. The Southeast region turned the corner in 2010 and has had uneven job growth since, though the first half of 2014 has shown signs of greater expansion. Some of the issues facing these economies are cyclical; while other challenges – like those facing the mining industry – are longer-term structural shifts in the economy.

• Carbon County payroll job growth in the second quarter of 2014 fell to an annual rate of negative 2.0 percent, the fourth slowest year-over job growth in the state and 4.8 percentage points slower than the Utah average. In total, the region lost 178 jobs from second quarter 2013. Employment in the mining industry fell 2.6 percent, but has stabilized somewhat over the last 18 months.
• The county seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.7 percent in September, 1.2 percentage points above the state average. County unemployment rates are down 1.0 percentage point from September 2013, and have consistently been at this level for seven months now.
• While employment in Carbon County waned over the last 12 months, average monthly wages increased 3.0 percent from second quarter 2013 to second quarter 2014. It appears that the jobs lost in several key industries – trade/transportation/utilities, mining, and professional/business services – were lower paying jobs, because these industries all experienced year-over increases to average monthly wages.
• Second-quarter taxable sales in Carbon County stayed relatively unchanged from 2013 to 2014, falling 0.3 percent during the year. Sales in general merchandise retail stores increased by approximately $1.1 million (6.6 percent) from second quarter 2013, the largest annual increase in the county. But, these gains were offset by year-over taxable sales declines in wholesale trade of durable goods.

Employment by Major Industry

Employment by Major Industry (or Nonfarm Employment) is compiled payroll data for nonfarm workers. Nonfarm workers are all employees excluding government employees, private household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations and farm employees. DWS economists have broken these documents into county regions and are an important economic indicator of the current economic situation. For more: Why no "Farm" in Nonfarm Jobs?

Second quarter 2014 has been updated for counties in the Castle Country region. These can be found on each county's page in the links to right, as well as below.

• Carbon County
• Emery County

Long-term Industry Projections available on the web

Job seekers who make decisions based on labor trends information are more likely to see payoff for their efforts. An important aspect of career exploration is understanding how occupations and industries are expected to change. To assist in this process, the Department of Workforce Services (DWS) produces long-term industry projections every two years for the major industry sectors in Utah, providing information on the state’s expected labor demands. The long-term projections extend ten years past the base year. Using the industry projections, DWS generates occupational projections for jobs that fall into the industry categories.

To access the most recent set of long-term industry projections, click here.

New Data Available in Utah Economic Data Viewer

The 2013, Q4 industry employment and wages data has been updated in the Utah Economic Data Viewer. Industry employment and wage data is collected through the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. The primary source for QCEW data are the reports submitted by employers to the Utah Unemployment Insurance program.

The Utah Department of Workforce Services compiles quarterly employment and wage data for non-agricultural employers in Utah. Data is maintained at the establishment level (e.g., store, plant, or other type of permanent worksite facility). Since these establishments are assigned an industry and county code, their employment and wage data can be aggregated into common industry and county groupings for analysis purposes.

Utah Employers, Employment and Wages by Size, 2013

The Utah Department of Workforce Services compiles quarterly employment and wage data for non-agricultural employers in Utah. Data is maintained at the establishment level (e.g., store, plant, or other type of permanent worksite facility). Since these establishments are assigned an industry and county code, their employment and wage data can be aggregated into common industry and county groupings for analysis purposes.

Employment and wage data for Utah’s non-agricultural employers are categorized in this publication by employment size for the month of March in each of the designated years. Grouping data by this criterion provides a useful tool to analyze the characteristics of Utah employers. For example, general trends of the size of Utah employers and employment concentrations by employer size class can be observed. Wage levels for large, medium, and small firms can also be evaluated.

In this publication, data is presented for both establishments and firms. The term "establishment" is generally defined as a specific physical worksite for an employer. For most employers, this is the actual street location at which business is conducted. For others, with no permanent worksite (such as salespeople, factory representatives, or distributors) it is the location from which they conduct their business (sometimes even residences).

For an overview of this publication and a look at your county, click here.