Carbon County Economic Update

Tyson Smith, Regional Economist

The Utah Department of Workforce Services (DWS) relies on several data sources to help describe the state of the economy. The most accurate data available is the nonfarm payroll employment information that is collected through the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. However, the resources required to gather data accurately come at the expense of timeliness, which results in a four to six month lag between the time these data are collected and when they are available to the public.

Other data are collected in a timelier manner, and these data (along with historical trends) provide a foundation to estimate current economic conditions. Economists at DWS rely heavily upon statistical models, surveys, and limited datasets to evaluate the economy in real-time. Some of those tools, like the county unemployment rates and initial weekly unemployment claims, are highlighted in this article.

The truth is that no single source of economic data exists that can appropriately profile the labor market in real-time. So, when evaluating regional economies it is important to understand the recent economic history of the area, while also using any up-to-date information available despite the limitations of present data.

Emery County Economic Update

Tyson Smith, Regional Economist

The Utah Department of Workforce Services (DWS) relies on several data sources to help describe the state of the economy. The most accurate data available is the nonfarm payroll employment information that is collected through the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. However, the resources required to gather data accurately come at the expense of timeliness, which results in a four to six month lag between the time these data are collected and when they are available to the public.

Other data are collected in a timelier manner, and these data (along with historical trends) provide a foundation to estimate current economic conditions. Economists at DWS rely heavily upon statistical models, surveys, and limited datasets to evaluate the economy in real-time. Some of those tools, like the county unemployment rates and initial weekly unemployment claims, are highlighted in this article.

The truth is that no single source of economic data exists that can appropriately profile the labor market in real-time. So, when evaluating regional economies it is important to understand the recent economic history of the area, while also using any up-to-date information available despite the limitations of present data.

Emery County Economic Indicators

Despite the positive momentum across the state, the Castle Country and Southeast regions have scuffled to recover from the recession. Both regions felt the effects of the downturn in 2009, when the labor markets shed 202 and 283 jobs from the previous year, respectively. 2010 turned out to be the best year for the labor market in Castle Country since the recovery began. The Southeast region turned the corner in 2010 and has had uneven job growth since, though the first half of 2014 has shown signs of greater expansion. Some of the issues facing these economies are cyclical; while other challenges – like those facing the mining industry – are longer-term structural shifts in the economy.

• Year-over payroll employment in Emery County grew 2.5 percent in the second quarter of 2014. Growth was driven by the goods-producing industries, which increased 9.7 percent (87 jobs). However, construction and mining employment went in separate directions. Employment in the construction industry jumped 54.7 percent – likely the result of a single project, and not a long-term change – while mining employment fell 23.6 percent.
• Like Carbon County, Emery County had a relatively high seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate of 4.8 percent in September. 2014 job growth has been uneven, and without consistent growth it is unlikely that the jobless rate will reach pre-recession lows in the near future.
• Average monthly wage growth in the second quarter of 2014 reflected employment growth; increasing 19.5 percent from 2013 (the largest increase in the state). Carbon County’s wage growth was broad-based increasing in 9 of the 10 industry groups. However, a single project in the construction industry inflated average monthly wages dramatically.
• Second quarter 2014 taxable sales in Emery increased for the fourth consecutive quarter. Quarterly taxable sales in the county were just under $38 million, compared to $32.7 million in second quarter 2013. The utilities and information industries – the largest and fourth largest industries by total sales – gained $2.4 million combined.

Carbon County Economic Indicators

Despite the positive momentum across the state, the Castle Country and Southeast regions have scuffled to recover from the recession. Both regions felt the effects of the downturn in 2009, when the labor markets shed 202 and 283 jobs from the previous year, respectively. 2010 turned out to be the best year for the labor market in Castle Country since the recovery began. The Southeast region turned the corner in 2010 and has had uneven job growth since, though the first half of 2014 has shown signs of greater expansion. Some of the issues facing these economies are cyclical; while other challenges – like those facing the mining industry – are longer-term structural shifts in the economy.

• Carbon County payroll job growth in the second quarter of 2014 fell to an annual rate of negative 2.0 percent, the fourth slowest year-over job growth in the state and 4.8 percentage points slower than the Utah average. In total, the region lost 178 jobs from second quarter 2013. Employment in the mining industry fell 2.6 percent, but has stabilized somewhat over the last 18 months.
• The county seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.7 percent in September, 1.2 percentage points above the state average. County unemployment rates are down 1.0 percentage point from September 2013, and have consistently been at this level for seven months now.
• While employment in Carbon County waned over the last 12 months, average monthly wages increased 3.0 percent from second quarter 2013 to second quarter 2014. It appears that the jobs lost in several key industries – trade/transportation/utilities, mining, and professional/business services – were lower paying jobs, because these industries all experienced year-over increases to average monthly wages.
• Second-quarter taxable sales in Carbon County stayed relatively unchanged from 2013 to 2014, falling 0.3 percent during the year. Sales in general merchandise retail stores increased by approximately $1.1 million (6.6 percent) from second quarter 2013, the largest annual increase in the county. But, these gains were offset by year-over taxable sales declines in wholesale trade of durable goods.

New County Pages

See our new County Pages, each with their own URL for easy bookmarking. Find labor market information that has been divided into counties and regions for a quick look at each area.

Also find a new look for the Current Economic Snapshots (Carbon and Emery). These are economic snapshots are a two-page look at the current information for labor force, sales, building and unemployment insurance for each county in Utah, and are updated monthly after the Employment Situation.

These can be accessed on the Utah Economic Data page or on the Labor Market page under the "County Snapshots" link.